Editorial
Merging Pediatric Index of Mortality (a physiologic instability measure), lactate, and Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk to better predict outcome in pediatric sepsis
Christopher M. Horvat, Dennis W. Simon, Zachary Aldewereld, Idris Evans, Rajesh Aneja, Joseph A. Carcillo
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University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC), Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh, Department of Critical Care Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
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The numbers in the table indicate p-values for comparisons between curves (ROC curves were compared using the method of DeLong et al.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0065"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a>) Area under the curve (AUC) values: PIM2 AUC 0.815 (95% CI 0.766–0.858); Ferritin AUC 0.785 (95% CI 0.733–0.830); Lactate AUC 0.762 (95% CI 0.709–0.810); CRP AUC 0.648 (95% CI 0.590–0.702); Leukocytes AUC 0.508 (95% CI 0.450–0.567).</p> <p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">PIM2, Pediatric Index of Mortality 2; CRP, C-reactive protein.</p>" ] ] ] "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "autoresLista" => "Cristian Tedesco Tonial, Caroline Abud Drumond Costa, Gabriela Rupp Hanzen Andrades, Francielly Crestani, Francisco Bruno, Jefferson Pedro Piva, Pedro Celiny Ramos Garcia" "autores" => array:7 [ 0 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Cristian Tedesco" "apellidos" => "Tonial" ] 1 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Caroline Abud Drumond" "apellidos" => "Costa" ] 2 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Gabriela Rupp Hanzen" "apellidos" => "Andrades" ] 3 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Francielly" "apellidos" => "Crestani" ] 4 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Francisco" "apellidos" => "Bruno" ] 5 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Jefferson Pedro" "apellidos" => "Piva" ] 6 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Pedro Celiny Ramos" "apellidos" => "Garcia" ] ] ] ] ] "idiomaDefecto" => "en" "EPUB" => "https://multimedia.elsevier.es/PublicationsMultimediaV1/item/epub/S0021755720302060?idApp=UINPBA000049" "url" => "/00217557/0000009700000003/v2_202106031214/S0021755720302060/v2_202106031214/en/main.assets" ] ] "en" => array:12 [ "idiomaDefecto" => true "cabecera" => "<span class="elsevierStyleTextfn">Editorial</span>" "titulo" => "Merging Pediatric Index of Mortality (a physiologic instability measure), lactate, and Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk to better predict outcome in pediatric sepsis" "tieneTextoCompleto" => true "paginas" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "paginaInicial" => "256" "paginaFinal" => "259" ] ] "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:4 [ "autoresLista" => "Christopher M. Horvat, Dennis W. Simon, Zachary Aldewereld, Idris Evans, Rajesh Aneja, Joseph A. Carcillo" "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Christopher M." "apellidos" => "Horvat" ] 1 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Dennis W." "apellidos" => "Simon" ] 2 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Zachary" "apellidos" => "Aldewereld" ] 3 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Idris" "apellidos" => "Evans" ] 4 => array:2 [ "nombre" => "Rajesh" "apellidos" => "Aneja" ] 5 => array:4 [ "nombre" => "Joseph A." "apellidos" => "Carcillo" "email" => array:1 [ 0 => "carcilloja@ccm.upmc.edu" ] "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "*" "identificador" => "cor0005" ] ] ] ] "afiliaciones" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "entidad" => "University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC), Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh, Department of Critical Care Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA" "identificador" => "aff0005" ] ] "correspondencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "cor0005" "etiqueta" => "⁎" "correspondencia" => "Corresponding author." ] ] ] ] "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">One in five deaths occur globally as a result of sepsis, with the majority occurring in newborns and children in resource-poor settings.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0005"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> Whereas public health efforts in Brazil have reduced pediatric deaths from sepsis by 75%, mortality in hospitalized children remains stubbornly high at above 20%, particularly in the São Paulo region.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0010"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span></a> In today’s journal, Tonial et al. report the first attempt at merging PIM2, a measure of physiologic instability, with lactate, and Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk in order to better predict mortality in pediatric sepsis.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0015"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a> They found that the Youden’s J test best cut-off value PIM2 score has an accuracy (true positives + true negatives/all tests) of 0.880, which increases to 0.945 with the addition of the best Youden’s test cutoffs for lactate plus the two components of Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk, namely C-reactive protein and ferritin, in predicting pediatric sepsis mortality in their PICU.</p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The PIM2, PRISM IV, TOPICC, PEMOD, and PELOD-2 scores are among the most commonly used measures of physiological instability and organ dysfunction-related mortality risk in pediatric intensive care. Over the years, the PIM2, PRISM IV, and TOPICC scores have added high-risk and low-risk diagnoses to further improve their ability to predict mortality and morbidity. Specifically, the PIM2 score records lowest systolic blood pressure, pupillary reaction, paO2, and base excess, as well as highest FiO2, with added patient care characteristics including mechanical ventilation, elective admission, post-surgical admission, cardiopulmonary bypass, and high-risk diagnosis (cardiac arrest, cerebral hemorrhage, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, acute or chronic liver failure, or neurodegenerative disease) or low risk diagnosis (asthma, bronchiolitis, obstructive sleep apnea, diabetic ketoacidosis, or central apnea).<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0020"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Children who die from septic shock do so in two epochs: those who die within the first 48 h of unremitting shock, and those who die 7 or more days later of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome due to an inability to remove infection, or control inflammation and coagulation.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0025"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5–8</span></a> Use of septic shock recognition tools as well as timely resuscitation and antibiotic treatment in the emergency department results in reduced mortality.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0045"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9</span></a> In the PICU, de Oliveira and colleagues showed that children in São Paulo who die from septic shock can be saved with continuous monitoring of ScVO2, reducing mortality from 42% to 11% when therapies were directed at keeping ScVO2 > 70% and maintaining normal perfusion pressure for age, defined by Mean Arterial Pressure minus Central Venous Pressure.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a> ScVO2 > 70% is attained by targeting a goal cardiac index between 3.3 and 6.0 L/min/m<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span> with normal perfusion pressure using variable combinations of fluid loading or diuresis, and inotropes with vasopressors or vasodilators depending on changing hemodynamic phenotypes over time (including hypovolemic, hypervolemic, hypodynamic, hyperdynamic, vasodilated, and vasoconstricted phenotypes).<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10–15</span></a></p><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Measurement of ScVO2 requires placement of a central venous catheter with a sampling port at the RA-SVC or RA-IVC junction. ScVO2 is decreased when oxygen extraction is increased. This can occur with low cardiac output < 3.3 L/min/m<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span>, causing low oxygen delivery, or very high cardiac output > 6.0 L/min/m<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span>, causing increased cardiac oxygen consumption.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0070"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> For clinicians unable to measure ScVO2, capillary refill < 3 s with normal pulses is the next best alternative; however, it is next best as the patients in the de Oliveira study who showed 42% mortality were those for whom cardiovascular therapies were targeted to capillary refill < 3 s, not ScVO2 > 70%.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a> When ScVO2 < 70% is accompanied by lactate > 4 there is life-threatening oxygen debt.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0075"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> Pediatric septic shock non-survivors remain in a very high oxygen extraction state for the first 48 h of PICU presentation, whereas survivors normalize their very high oxygen extraction by attaining cardiac index goals of 3.3–6.0 L/min/m<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span> with the aid of bedside hemodynamic support.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0075"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> Unlike adults, essentially all deaths in the first 48 h of pediatric septic shock are due to oxygen debt.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0055"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a> Elevation of lactate in the absence of a low ScVO2 does not indicate oxygen debt but rather metabolic alteration or Type II lactatemia. Lactate likely improves PIM2 prediction of death only in children with oxygen debt, not in those without oxygen debt.</p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Despite ScVO2 directed resuscitation, 11% of children still died in the São Paulo Brazilian PICU setting.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a> Our colleagues from Porto Alegre were the first to recognize that these children are dying from uncontrolled inflammation leading to Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome and ensuant Multiple Organ Failure, when they reported the relationship of hyperferritinemia to late (>7 days) MOF-related deaths.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0080"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> Of course, it had been recognized for a very long time that uncontrolled systemic inflammation kills patients. Roger Bone elegantly described a progression from systemic inflammatory response (SIRS), with high TNF alpha and IL-1 produced to kill infection, to compensatory inflammatory response (CARS), with high IL-10 released to control inflammation; to immunologic dissonance with very high levels of IL-6 and IL-10 indicative of uncontrolled inflammation and inability to kill infection. Mortality was highest with immunologic dissonance.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0085"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span></a></p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">When clinicians applied Bone’s conceptual model at the bedside it worked to a large degree, but not completely so. Interleukin-6 induces production and release of the pattern recognition receptor C-reactive protein (CRP), which binds bacteria as well as necrotic host cells to complement and delivers these antigens to resident macrophages for processing and clearance by the reticuloendothelial system. Indeed, patients with very high CRP levels were noted to be sicker, and persistently high CRP levels were related to unremitting infection, sometimes due to incorrect antibiotics.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0090"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">18</span></a> These patients could be saved with effective source control and appropriate use of sensitive antibiotics. In Brazil, this means that every hospital laboratory must be able to perform antimicrobial sensitivity testing. Nevertheless, many patients dying with MOF who received what was perceived as adequate source control and antibiotic therapies were not identifiable by CRP production alone.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0095"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a></p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The Porto Alegre group showed that these MOF patients could be recognized by the presence of very high ferritin levels in conjunction with high CRP levels.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0080"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> Wang and colleagues have recently explained the scientific basis for this phenomenon, showing that the sequence of antigen exposures predicts development of hyperferritinemia and MOF in sepsis. Exposure of rodents to viral followed by bacterial antigen leads to hyperferritinemic sepsis, MOF, and death caused by macrophage activation that is both T-cell and interferon gamma independent, whereas exposure to viral:viral, bacterial:bacterial, or bacterial:viral antigen sequences does not induce hyperferritinemic sepsis, MOF, or high systemic inflammation mortality risk.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0100"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> At the Brazilian bedside, hyperferritinemic sepsis should raise suspicion for intracellular organisms such as Leishmaniasis, Babesiosus, Dengue virus, COVID-19, and DNA viruses.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0105"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21,22</span></a> This should alert the physician to order different diagnostic tests and consider different treatment options. In addition to anti-viral and anti-parasitic medications, anti-inflammatory therapies can be considered to quell macrophage activation syndrome. Ferritin itself is pro-inflammatory, participating in feed forward inflammation during inflammasome activation. It is also immune suppressive, causing concomitant IL-10 production and inhibition of lymphopoiesis, leading to anergy.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0115"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> Ideal therapies for hyperferritinemic sepsis need to kill viruses/intracellular organisms, reduce inflammation, and restore immunity.</p><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Analysis of paired CRP and ferritin levels in children provides the Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk for MOF deaths beyond 7 days.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0095"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19,24,25</span></a> Low CRP and low ferritin are associated with low ‘near zero’ risk; elevated CRP or ferritin alone confers intermediate ‘single digit percentage’ risks; and combined high CRP and high ferritin confer very high mortality risks of 22–45%. These deaths in patients with high Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk occur in part due to the development of inflammation pathobiology phenotypes, including: (1) immunoparalysis: a condition characterized by a whole blood <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">ex vivo</span> TNF-alpha response to endotoxin <200 pg/mL for longer than three days with unremitting infection, that is reversible with proper antibiotics, source control and targeted immune modulation with low dose GM-CSF<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">26–28</span></a>; (2) thrombocytopenia-associated MOF: a condition characterized by thrombotic microangiopathy, AKI, elevated LDH, and ADAM TS13 activity < 57% that is reversible with plasma exchange<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27–31</span></a>; and (3) hyper-inflammation<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">32</span></a> related to sequential liver failure-associated MOF, a condition characterized by virus-induced lymphoproliferative disease that is reversible with antivirals and anti-proliferative mAbs such as Rituximab for EBV infection,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0165"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">33</span></a> and macrophage activation syndrome, a condition characterized by hyperferritinemia with disseminated intravascular coagulation and hepatobiliary dysfunction that is reversible with methylprednisone, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist, IVIG, and plasma exchange.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27,28,32,34</span></a><span class="elsevierStyleSup">,</span><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">35</span></a></p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">As low-cost and widely available biomarkers, the combination of CRP and ferritin provides a simple and accessible approach to assessment of systemic inflammation mortality risk among children suspected or confirmed to have severe and/or systemic infection. Our own work examining children with sepsis, as well as a diagnostically diverse cohort of all hospitalized children at our own institution, demonstrated that children with both elevated CRP and ferritin are substantially and significantly more likely to die than children with elevation of one or neither of the biomarkers.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0095"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19,24,25</span></a> Incorporating CRP and ferritin in prediction models that simultaneously leverage other available discrete data at the bedside may be an avenue for developing meaningful clinical decision support tools for general risk assessment in the PICU, though much work remains in this arena. While PIM2, PRISM IV, PELOD-2 and other comparable scores have demonstrated good predictive validity in cohort studies, their utility in predicting individual risk is unclear and even controversial. A model that demonstrates excellent outcome discrimination by assessment of the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve in a cohort does not necessarily indicate that a high positive predictive value will be observed when using the model at the bedside.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">36</span></a> While the present work by Tonial et al. requires additional validation to better understand the potential value in individual risk stratification,<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0015"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a> it does add to a growing body of evidence indicating that both CRP and ferritin should be incorporated into the standard laboratory evaluation of children presenting with concern for serious infection or confirmed sepsis.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0095"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> Merging physiologic instability scoring systems with the Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk using paired CRP and ferritin is an exciting way forward for resource-poor and resource-rich settings alike.</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In the resource-rich setting, proteomics and transcriptomics are considered the superior approach to pediatric sepsis mortality risk stratification and disease progression tracking. Specific to proteomics, the PERSEVERE biomarkers C–C chemokine ligand 3 (CCL3), interleukin 8 (IL8), heat shock protein 70 kDa 1B, granzyme B, and matrix metallopeptidase 8 used in the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.59−0.87; <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span> = 0.002) for estimating the risk of hospital mortality in US children with community-acquired septic shock.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">37</span></a> In multivariable analyses, the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model was not independently associated with increased odds of the composite outcome of mortality or persistent, serious deterioration of health-related quality of life greater than 25% below baseline. A new decision tree using the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model biomarkers had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.80−0.95) for estimating the risk of persistent, serious deterioration in health-related quality of life at 3 months among children who survived septic shock.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">37</span></a> Specific to transcriptomic prognostic models for 30-day mortality in five cohorts of community-onset sepsis patients including children and adults showing summary AUROCs ranging from 0.765 to 0.89, similar performance was observed in four cohorts of hospital-acquired sepsis. These transcriptomic analyses identified adaptive, coagulopathic, and inflammatory endotypes.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">38</span></a> Normalization of these pathologic transcriptomes over time was associated with response to therapies in children with sepsis.<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">39</span></a> Until proteomics and transcriptomics become available with lower resource needs, the merging of PIM2, lactate, and Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk provides a practical path to better mortality risk stratification. Further work will be needed to determine whether tracking the physiologic components of PIM2, lactate, CRP, and ferritin over time will help bedside clinicians assess response to therapies and improve outcomes.</p><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0005">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Dr Carcillo is funded by grant 2R01GM108618 from by the National institutes of Health for this work. The other authors have no conflicts of interest regarding this work.</p></span></span>" "textoCompletoSecciones" => array:1 [ "secciones" => array:2 [ 0 => array:2 [ "identificador" => "sec0005" "titulo" => "Conflicts of interest" ] 1 => array:1 [ "titulo" => "References" ] ] ] "pdfFichero" => "main.pdf" "tienePdf" => true "NotaPie" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etiqueta" => "☆" "nota" => "<p class="elsevierStyleNotepara" id="npar0005">See article by Tonial et al. in pages 287–94.</p>" ] ] "bibliografia" => array:2 [ "titulo" => "References" "seccion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "identificador" => "bibs0005" "bibliografiaReferencia" => array:39 [ 0 => array:3 [ "identificador" => "bib0005" "etiqueta" => "1" "referencia" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "contribucion" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "titulo" => "Global, regional, and national sepsis incidence and mortality, 1990–2017: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study" "autores" => array:1 [ 0 => array:2 [ "etal" => true "autores" => array:6 [ 0 => "K.E. 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| Year/Month | Html | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 November | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| 2024 October | 20 | 25 | 45 |
| 2024 September | 41 | 36 | 77 |
| 2024 August | 52 | 38 | 90 |
| 2024 July | 51 | 44 | 95 |
| 2024 June | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| 2024 May | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| 2024 April | 29 | 30 | 59 |
| 2024 March | 39 | 22 | 61 |
| 2024 February | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| 2024 January | 30 | 27 | 57 |
| 2023 December | 16 | 25 | 41 |
| 2023 November | 24 | 43 | 67 |
| 2023 October | 24 | 38 | 62 |
| 2023 September | 33 | 41 | 74 |
| 2023 August | 21 | 23 | 44 |
| 2023 July | 25 | 18 | 43 |
| 2023 June | 25 | 15 | 40 |
| 2023 May | 28 | 20 | 48 |
| 2023 April | 22 | 13 | 35 |
| 2023 March | 53 | 22 | 75 |
| 2023 February | 47 | 23 | 70 |
| 2023 January | 36 | 25 | 61 |
| 2022 December | 48 | 37 | 85 |
| 2022 November | 26 | 30 | 56 |
| 2022 October | 61 | 43 | 104 |
| 2022 September | 20 | 44 | 64 |
| 2022 August | 24 | 36 | 60 |
| 2022 July | 23 | 28 | 51 |
| 2022 June | 24 | 23 | 47 |
| 2022 May | 26 | 39 | 65 |
| 2022 April | 59 | 41 | 100 |
| 2022 March | 30 | 36 | 66 |
| 2022 February | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| 2022 January | 14 | 22 | 36 |
| 2021 December | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| 2021 November | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| 2021 October | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| 2021 September | 16 | 11 | 27 |
| 2021 August | 18 | 14 | 32 |
| 2021 July | 44 | 19 | 63 |
| 2021 June | 122 | 41 | 163 |
| 2021 May | 35 | 17 | 52 |
| 2021 April | 56 | 24 | 80 |
| 2021 March | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| 2021 February | 22 | 15 | 37 |
| 2021 January | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| 2020 December | 16 | 17 | 33 |
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